Box and papers used to be a nice to have. In the current market they are a pricing event. Let me explain...
The spread between a complete set and a naked reference has widened considerably over the last two years and it is not coming back. What changed is who is buying. The speculative buyers who flooded the market during the boom weren't particularly focused on origin, also known as provenance. They were focused on flipping quickly and a naked reference was fine if the price was right.
The buyers who replaced them when the flippers exited are a different profile entirely. Serious collectors, long term holders, people who understand that a complete set is not just documentation but a signal about how the previous owner treated the watch. Box and papers tell you something about the care history before you ever open the caseback.
One big challenge is that some watch boxes don't survive well in storage. Peeling leatherette, markings wearing off, etc. This also shows how well the previous owner may have treated the watch.
On the secondary market the practical impact can be significant. Clean complete sets on desirable references are moving at premiums that would have seemed excessive two years ago. Naked examples of the same reference are sitting longer and selling at bigger discounts than the market had historically applied.
If you are buying right now, factor the cost of a complete set into your evaluation before you compromise on provenance to save money on entry. That saving rarely holds up on exit.
If you are selling, a complete set is worth the time it takes to find everything that came with the watch before you list it.
How much does provenance factor into your buying decisions right now?
WRITTEN BY JOHN MARCHIANDO — JUST WIND IT, NORTON SHORES, MICHIGAN